The Great Transformation?
An evidence review of the “Western collapse” thesis — population decline, immigration, ethnic change and social cohesion — with scenarios to 2075.
Research area
Institutions & Governance
7 reports in the series.
The Polycrisis Apocalypse
A name for the worst way the polycrisis could end — and a framework for keeping it hypothetical. The decisive variable is the race between the rate crises add stress and the rate institutions repair it.
The Future of Global Habitability
Which places are most likely to keep sustaining human health, stability and prosperity as climate, resource, demographic and governance stresses arrive together? A Habitability Resilience Index for 175 countries — and a demographic mismatch at its centre.
The Global Polycrisis Outlook 2027
Why 2027 is the year the slow variables and the fast shocks arrive together, and what that means for those who must prepare.
The Polycrisis Risk Reduction Index
A transparent 0–100 index of national capacity to reduce, absorb and adapt to compound risk — 40 countries, 18 indicators, six pillars, projected to 2100 under four IPCC pathways.
Building Adaptive Capacity Across the Emerging World Before 2050
Adaptive capacity is the meta-capability that decides whether a shock becomes a contained disruption or a cascading crisis. It runs on two engines — infrastructure and institutions — that must be built together.
Designing a Global Strategy for Polycrisis Risk Reduction
Coupled shocks defeat siloed responses. Four mutually reinforcing pillars — climate resilience, development finance, the energy transition, and institutional capacity — form a single strategy rather than a menu.