The Heat Trap
How the demographic centre of humanity is moving into the planet’s most climate-exposed regions, and what it will take to keep the late twenty-first century liveable. Part II of the Century Recalibration series.
Research area
Climate Adaptation
19 reports in the series.
The Century Compass
Where is humanity headed by 2100? The demographic shift toward Africa and South Asia, the ageing of the West and East Asia, the convergence of the Asian century, and the polycrisis — and what life will be like for the median human at the end of the century.
Convergence Before Crisis
The case for accelerating development is usually moral and economic. This report adds a third argument — timing: several slow stresses are set to peak together between 2040 and 2060, and development cuts vulnerability far faster than mitigation cuts hazard.
The Weight of the Polycrisis
How air pollution, heat, hunger and poverty harm the body and mind, how feedback loops make the suffering self-reinforcing, and why it will be prolonged for centuries in the regions where survival is most at risk.
Human Survival in the Polycrisis Century
How many people the entangled crises of the century could kill, who is most exposed and vulnerable, and how much of the toll is avoidable: measured evidence, a transparent scenario model and an honest account of the catastrophic tail.
The Geography of Resilience in the Global South
Resilience finance is scarce and barely correlated with vulnerability. Scoring 122 economies on risk intensity, risk mass and deliverability to show where each dollar would do the most.
Pollution, Climate Change, and Human Survivability
How climate change, pollution, and ecosystem degradation compound each other — and where three pillars of resilience should intervene.
Human Resilience in a World of Converging Risks
What protects health, security, connection and hope when climate, economic, conflict, health and information risks arrive together — the evidence, the four layers of protection, and a ten-year path.
The Resilience Dividend of Sustainable Development
Why the investments that lift people up are the same investments that stop shocks from spreading.
Building Adaptive Capacity for the Twenty-First Century
Climate, pollution and instability act on the same people at the same time. A five-layer Capacity Stack for anticipating, absorbing and adapting to all three at once — and why capacity built early is cheaper than capacity improvised.
Polycrisis Resilience in an Era of Cascading Shocks
Why risks now travel together, how shocks cascade through coupled systems, and what governments, firms and communities can do to keep functioning — the evidence, a framework and a roadmap.
Reducing Human Exposure to Cascading Risks in an Age of Polycrisis
How shrinking the number of people in harm’s way, loosening the links between failing systems, and enlarging financial and institutional buffers can reduce the human cost of coupled global crises.
The 21st Century
Demography, Asia and Africa’s rise, technology and AI, climate, pollution and biodiversity, geopolitics, and whether progress can outpace systemic risk: a forward analysis to 2100.
The Future of Global Habitability
Which places are most likely to keep sustaining human health, stability and prosperity as climate, resource, demographic and governance stresses arrive together? A Habitability Resilience Index for 175 countries — and a demographic mismatch at its centre.
The Global Polycrisis Outlook 2027
Why 2027 is the year the slow variables and the fast shocks arrive together, and what that means for those who must prepare.
The Polycrisis Risk Reduction Index
A transparent 0–100 index of national capacity to reduce, absorb and adapt to compound risk — 40 countries, 18 indicators, six pillars, projected to 2100 under four IPCC pathways.
Human Survivability in the Twenty-First Century
How much of humanity will live for decades with a shrinking margin for error, and where? A Survivability Exposure Index across seven world regions, set against each region’s adaptive capacity.
Building Adaptive Capacity Across the Emerging World Before 2050
Adaptive capacity is the meta-capability that decides whether a shock becomes a contained disruption or a cascading crisis. It runs on two engines — infrastructure and institutions — that must be built together.
Building Resilient Development Pathways Through the Global Polycrisis
Systemic vulnerability is built, not given. Two levers — adaptation and clean infrastructure — can lower it, but only if they are financed and sequenced before the concrete is poured.