The Great Transformation?
An evidence review of the “Western collapse” thesis — population decline, immigration, ethnic change and social cohesion — with scenarios to 2075.
How Many Lives Could Polycrisis Resilience Save This Century?
Decisions this decade, consequences to 2100. A purpose-built scenario model compares four futures and finds that acting early and together could avert roughly 368 million deaths — while delay or siloed action forfeits more than a third of that. Report 01 of the Polycrisis Resilience series.
The central question of this report is how much difference proactive polycrisis resilience could make by 2100. Resilience is defined broadly: clean energy and air quality, safe water and sanitation, food and nutrition security, quality health systems, climate adaptation and mitigation, and preparedness for pandemics and compounding shocks, all anchored in sustainable development in the Global South. The report compares four futures — reactive drift, delayed action, siloed progress and coordinated resilience — and tracks four outcomes: lives saved, healthy life-years gained, severe deprivation reduced and resilience improved.