The series
27 reports in the H Heuristics Research Report series. Every report is open access; each page carries the abstract, key findings, structured metadata, and the full PDF.
Decisions this decade, consequences to 2100. A purpose-built scenario model compares four futures and finds that acting early and together could avert roughly 368 million deaths — while delay or siloed action forfeits more than a third of that. Report 01 of the Polycrisis Resilience series.
An evidence review of the “Western collapse” thesis — population decline, immigration, ethnic change and social cohesion — with scenarios to 2075.
How the demographic centre of humanity is moving into the planet’s most climate-exposed regions, and what it will take to keep the late twenty-first century liveable. Part II of the Century Recalibration series.
Where is humanity headed by 2100? The demographic shift toward Africa and South Asia, the ageing of the West and East Asia, the convergence of the Asian century, and the polycrisis — and what life will be like for the median human at the end of the century.
A name for the worst way the polycrisis could end — and a framework for keeping it hypothetical. The decisive variable is the race between the rate crises add stress and the rate institutions repair it.
Nodes, channels, amplifiers and circuit-breakers, with the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis as a live case.
Why the central development problem is no longer invention but delivery.
The case for accelerating development is usually moral and economic. This report adds a third argument — timing: several slow stresses are set to peak together between 2040 and 2060, and development cuts vulnerability far faster than mitigation cuts hazard.
How air pollution, heat, hunger and poverty harm the body and mind, how feedback loops make the suffering self-reinforcing, and why it will be prolonged for centuries in the regions where survival is most at risk.
How many people the entangled crises of the century could kill, who is most exposed and vulnerable, and how much of the toll is avoidable: measured evidence, a transparent scenario model and an honest account of the catastrophic tail.
Debate about technology and development is usually conducted in the future tense. This report looks at what has already happened — which innovations reached the rest of the world, how completely, and what the record teaches about how diffusion works.
Resilience finance is scarce and barely correlated with vulnerability. Scoring 122 economies on risk intensity, risk mass and deliverability to show where each dollar would do the most.
How climate change, pollution, and ecosystem degradation compound each other — and where three pillars of resilience should intervene.
What protects health, security, connection and hope when climate, economic, conflict, health and information risks arrive together — the evidence, the four layers of protection, and a ten-year path.
Why the investments that lift people up are the same investments that stop shocks from spreading.
Climate, pollution and instability act on the same people at the same time. A five-layer Capacity Stack for anticipating, absorbing and adapting to all three at once — and why capacity built early is cheaper than capacity improvised.
Why risks now travel together, how shocks cascade through coupled systems, and what governments, firms and communities can do to keep functioning — the evidence, a framework and a roadmap.
How shrinking the number of people in harm’s way, loosening the links between failing systems, and enlarging financial and institutional buffers can reduce the human cost of coupled global crises.
Demography, Asia and Africa’s rise, technology and AI, climate, pollution and biodiversity, geopolitics, and whether progress can outpace systemic risk: a forward analysis to 2100.
Which places are most likely to keep sustaining human health, stability and prosperity as climate, resource, demographic and governance stresses arrive together? A Habitability Resilience Index for 175 countries — and a demographic mismatch at its centre.
Why 2027 is the year the slow variables and the fast shocks arrive together, and what that means for those who must prepare.
A transparent 0–100 index of national capacity to reduce, absorb and adapt to compound risk — 40 countries, 18 indicators, six pillars, projected to 2100 under four IPCC pathways.
How much of humanity will live for decades with a shrinking margin for error, and where? A Survivability Exposure Index across seven world regions, set against each region’s adaptive capacity.
Adaptive capacity is the meta-capability that decides whether a shock becomes a contained disruption or a cascading crisis. It runs on two engines — infrastructure and institutions — that must be built together.
One asset class cuts seven coupled threats at once. The obstacle is not technology or cost but an appraisal system that credits a single benefit and prices none of the harm.
Systemic vulnerability is built, not given. Two levers — adaptation and clean infrastructure — can lower it, but only if they are financed and sequenced before the concrete is poured.
Coupled shocks defeat siloed responses. Four mutually reinforcing pillars — climate resilience, development finance, the energy transition, and institutional capacity — form a single strategy rather than a menu.
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