Research area
11 reports in the series.
Decisions this decade, consequences to 2100. A purpose-built scenario model compares four futures and finds that acting early and together could avert roughly 368 million deaths — while delay or siloed action forfeits more than a third of that. Report 01 of the Polycrisis Resilience series.
How the demographic centre of humanity is moving into the planet’s most climate-exposed regions, and what it will take to keep the late twenty-first century liveable. Part II of the Century Recalibration series.
Where is humanity headed by 2100? The demographic shift toward Africa and South Asia, the ageing of the West and East Asia, the convergence of the Asian century, and the polycrisis — and what life will be like for the median human at the end of the century.
Why the central development problem is no longer invention but delivery.
The case for accelerating development is usually moral and economic. This report adds a third argument — timing: several slow stresses are set to peak together between 2040 and 2060, and development cuts vulnerability far faster than mitigation cuts hazard.
How many people the entangled crises of the century could kill, who is most exposed and vulnerable, and how much of the toll is avoidable: measured evidence, a transparent scenario model and an honest account of the catastrophic tail.
Debate about technology and development is usually conducted in the future tense. This report looks at what has already happened — which innovations reached the rest of the world, how completely, and what the record teaches about how diffusion works.
Resilience finance is scarce and barely correlated with vulnerability. Scoring 122 economies on risk intensity, risk mass and deliverability to show where each dollar would do the most.
Demography, Asia and Africa’s rise, technology and AI, climate, pollution and biodiversity, geopolitics, and whether progress can outpace systemic risk: a forward analysis to 2100.
A transparent 0–100 index of national capacity to reduce, absorb and adapt to compound risk — 40 countries, 18 indicators, six pillars, projected to 2100 under four IPCC pathways.
Adaptive capacity is the meta-capability that decides whether a shock becomes a contained disruption or a cascading crisis. It runs on two engines — infrastructure and institutions — that must be built together.